Has the economy changed dating
A: The unemployment rate is a trendless indicator that moves in the opposite direction from most other cyclical indicators.
Its level in February 1949 was the same 4.7 percent as in November 2007.
In the 2001 recession, we found a clear signal in employment and a mixed one in the various measures of output.
The committee places real Gross Domestic Income on an equal footing with real GDP; real GDI declined for six consecutive quarters in the recent recession.
First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP and real GDI, but use a range of other indicators as well.
Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology.
A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them.
In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.